Today at a Glance:

• Quote: Simple is beautiful.
• Framework: Directional Arrows of Progress.
• Tweet: Airbnb’s COVID-19 survival.
• Article: Nuclear or Elemental Power.
• Podcast: Cold exposure health gains.

One Quote:

“The simple things are also the most extraordinary things, and only the wise can see them.” — Paulo Coelho, The Alchemist

Never let your quest for more distract you from the beauty of enough.

Simple is beautiful.

One Framework:

Directional Arrows of Progress

The future is extremely difficult to predict—but there are clues.

Josh Wolfe—the founder of Lux Capital and a well-known investor in “atoms” (physical world technologies)—often refers to the directional arrows of progress in a given field.

The idea here is to identify—directionally, not specifically—where progress is headed, and use that insight to inform your investments of time and capital.

“It doesn't point to who the entrepreneur is or what specific company it is, but it tells you with a reasonably high level of confidence where things are headed.”

As a simple example, observe the arrow of progress around computers:

Each generation was getting more powerful, smaller, and closer to our bodies. Wolfe and Lux have used that insight to predict that Brain-Machine interfaces will be a significant part of the future and have begun investing in the space.

Accurately identifying secular trends before they happen is a durable way to generate outsized returns—as an investor, entrepreneur, or operator.

What undeniable directional arrows of progress are you observing in your field? How can you position yourself to benefit from them in the future?

One Tweet:

This is a really good use case of Twitter for a CEO. He shares the facts—which are very positive—then tells a story of how they got there.

It now appears COVID was Airbnb's defining moment as a company—an unpredictable injection of chaos that strengthened the business and its competitive positioning for the long-term.

Certain companies are antifragile—they benefit from chaos. The chaos strengthens the resolve of the leadership, clarifies the vision, and shakes out the market. Hindsight is 20/20, but it looks like Airbnb is one of them!

One Article:

Who’s Afraid of Nuclear Power?

The capacity for nuclear energy to completely revolutionize the clean energy landscape (and the geopolitical one) is real—but it’s held back by its name, which still carries a negative connotation that most people associate with mushroom clouds, Chernobyl, and Three Mile Island.

Fascinating piece with interactive visuals to bring the subject matter to life. Highly recommend!

One Podcast:

Using Deliberate Cold Exposure for Health & Performance

There’s a growing body of scientific research to suggest that short, regular stints of intense cold exposure have all sorts of incredible health, performance, and longevity benefits. Andrew Huberman hits it all in depth in this episode.

I’ve been something of a performance nerd for most of my life—old habits from my baseball days—so this has been intensely interesting to me.

I’m considering getting a cold tub to start experimenting with it this Summer. If anyone is interested, I can document the results and progress in public.

Listen to it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

‍