The Ludic Fallacy, Happiness as a Decision, & More
Today at a Glance
- Question: Happiness as a decision.
- Quote: Hard now, easy later.
- Framework: The Ludic Fallacy.
- Proverb: Avoid the nests.
- Poem: The brave fight within.
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Question to find more happiness:
How can you decide to be happy today?
I recently came across a story about happiness that I love:
The 92-year-old, petite, well-poised and proud lady, who is fully dressed each morning by 8am, with her hair fashionably coifed and makeup perfectly applied, even though she is legally blind, moved to a nursing home today.
After many hours of waiting patiently in the lobby of the nursing home, she smiled sweetly when told her room was ready.
As she maneuvered her walker to the elevator, I provided a visual description of her tiny room, including the eyelet sheets that had been hung on her window.
"I love it," she stated with the enthusiasm of an eight-year-old having just been presented with a new puppy.
"Mrs. Jones, you haven’t seen the room..."
"That doesn’t have anything to do with it. Happiness is something you decide on ahead of time."
That final line bears repeating:
Happiness is something you decide on ahead of time.
Every single morning, you have a decision: You get to decide how to perceive the world.
You can decide to focus on things outside your control and drive yourself crazy, or you can decide to focus on things within your control and let the rest fall into place.
No matter what opportunities, challenges, or chaos arise, each day is a fresh start, a fresh decision to make.
So, how can you decide to be happy today?
Quote on the dark path of comfort:
"If you look for truth, you may find comfort in the end; if you look for comfort you will not get either comfort or truth only soft soap and wishful thinking to begin, and in the end, despair." ― CS Lewis
Easy now, hard later. Hard now, easy later.
Framework to consider your exposure:
The Ludic Fallacy
In his 2007 best selling book, The Black Swan, author Nassim Taleb proposes the Ludic Fallacy as the common mistake of applying simplified models or frameworks to predict or explain highly-complex, real world scenarios.
He brings the idea to life with a simple thought experiment:
There are two participants of a coin toss game:
1. Dr. John, a respected expert in the field of statistics
2. Fat Tony, a fast-talking, street smart real estate agent
Taleb tells the two that each toss is independent and the coin is fair. He will flip the coin 99 times and then ask them to guess the outcome of the 100th flip.
Taleb flips the coin 99 times and each of the 99 tosses comes up heads. He asks them to estimate the probability of a heads on the 100th flip.
Dr. John answers that it is 50%, because he has been told the coin is fair and each toss is independent.
Fat Tony is incredulous and answers that the game is clearly rigged, so the next toss is 100% likely to be heads.
The point of the thought experiment is that an academic, rigid mind may be blinded by the notion that the game should conform with the models, while the realist will focus on experience, rather than the models.
Taleb uses an example from the combat sports world to bring the perils of the Ludic Fallacy to life:
"Organized competitive fighting trains the athlete to focus on the game and, in order not to dissipate his concentration, to ignore the possibility of what is not specifically allowed by the rules, such as kicks to the groin, a surprise knife, et cetera. So those who win the gold medal might be precisely those who will be most vulnerable in real life."
Operating under the assumption that the theoretical models will always hold up in reality is a dangerous way to live, as it exposes you to certain risks that the models may fail to predict.
It's always going to be easy to set aside "low probability events" and fail to adequately prepare for them in your personal or professional life.
But take a few moments to consider where you may be exposed and how you might navigate the chaos should the model you've relied on fundamentally break.
A little bit of preparation can go a long way...
Proverb I can't stop thinking about:
"You cannot prevent the birds of sorrow from flying over your head, but you can prevent them from building nests in your hair." - Chinese Proverb
If you attach yourself to the sorrow, continue to think all of the negative thoughts it brought about, repeat the patterns of your past, dwell in the pain, and bemoan your bad luck, you allow the nest to be built.
If you pause, breathe, give yourself a moment to reset, and choose a balanced response, you send the birds flying off into the distance.
The choice is yours...
Poem on the silent battle within:
This is one of my favorite poems by Emily Dickinson:
To fight aloud, is very brave - But gallanter, I knowWho charge within the bosomThe Calvalry of Wo - Who win, and nations do not see - Who fall - and none observe - Whose dying eyes, no CountryRegards with patriot love - We trust, in plumed processionFor such, the Angels go -Rank after Rank, with even feet -And Uniforms of snow.
The greatest battles we face in life happen in silence within ourselves.
The bravery to confront these battles may never be talked about, but should always be applauded.
