The Art & Science of Luck
Today at a Glance
- Theory: Our belief in our ability to create our own luck exposes us to more good fortune (or at least allows us to see the good fortune amidst a sea of bad).
- In an early 2000s study, Dr. Richard Wiseman found that lucky people came across "chance" opportunities, while the unlucky people seemed to miss them. Both groups had equal access to these opportunities, but the lucky group saw what the unlucky group tended to miss.
- Our daily thoughts, behaviors, and actions serve to expand or contract our luck surface area, which in turn determines our experience as a lucky or unlucky person.
- The Luck Razor: When choosing between two paths, always choose the path that has a larger luck surface area.
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Are you a lucky or unlucky person?
Your answer to this question may be more revealing of your thoughts, behaviors, and environment than you might expect.
I've always been fascinated by the concept of luck.
Some of history's most prolific thinkers, performers, and builders seem to believe in the ability to create it:
- "Luck is where opportunity meets preparation." - Seneca
- "Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more you sweat, the luckier you get." - Ray Kroc
- "Diligence is the mother of good luck." - Benjamin Franklin
- “Luck has nothing to do with it, because I have spent many, many hours, countless hours, on the court working for my one moment in time, not knowing when it would come.” - Serena Williams
Perhaps it's something of a self-fulfilling prophecy:
Our belief in our ability to create our own luck exposes us to more good fortune (or at least allows us to see the good fortune amidst a sea of the bad).
Perhaps our answer to the simple question—are you a lucky or unlucky person—is more impactful than meets the eye...
The Luck Factor
In 2003, Dr. Richard Wiseman published a book entitled The Luck Factor, which was a first-of-its-kind exploration of luck through a psychological lens.
In short, Dr. Wiseman was interested in studying why some people seem to consistently "get lucky" while others struggle with bad luck their whole lives.
His hypothesis: Our thoughts and behaviors determine our fortune.
To test this notion, Dr. Wiseman gathered participants for a series of simple experiments. He took out ads in newspapers and magazines requesting participants for a groundbreaking study on luck—specifically, the ads asked for people who considered themselves very lucky or very unlucky. Within weeks, 400 participants—half lucky, half unlucky—joined the study from all variety of backgrounds.
Dr. Wiseman and his research team conducted a range of experiments with the group.
In one such experiment, each participant was given a newspaper and asked to count the number of photographs inside it.
The unlucky group averaged 2 minutes to complete the exercise, while the lucky group averaged mere seconds.
What happened?
Well, on page 2 of the newspaper, there was an enormous bold font print that read, "Stop counting, there are 43 photographs in this newspaper."
At the halfway mark, there was another message that read, "Stop counting, tell the experimenter you have seen this and win $250."
The self-identified lucky people had seen the writing, stopped, and responded accordingly to end the timer (or collect the money).
The self-identified unlucky people, on the other hand, had missed it (or mistrusted it) and taken far longer to count.
This finding grew into a consistent theme across the body of research:
The lucky people came across "chance" opportunities, while the unlucky people seemed to miss them. Both groups had equal access to these opportunities, but the lucky group saw what the unlucky group tended to miss.
Herein lies the lesson...
Creating Your Own Luck
There's a concept I often refer to as "luck surface area" in my writing.
The idea is that each of us has a surface area on which lucky events can strike.
There are a few baseline factors out of our control:
- Where you are born
- Who you are born to
- "Acts of God"
Beyond these, the size of our luck surface area is within our control.
Our daily thoughts, behaviors, and actions serve to expand or contract our luck surface area, which in turn determines our experience as a lucky or unlucky person.
In Dr. Wiseman's study, the lucky people seemed to understand this:
- They noted that they often took alternate routes to and from work so that they would meet new people and see new things.
- They talked about unique strategies for talking to different groups of people at parties.
- They bounced back from seemingly negative encounters and maintained a positive outlook for the future.
The luckiest people have engineered an enormous luck surface area. They expose themselves to more luck than the average human.
You can expand yours in two ways:
- Remove Anti-Luck: Anti-luck includes all the actions, behaviors, and people that shrink your luck surface area. Pessimism and "blinders" are two common sources of anti-luck. People who tell you to be realistic or create a negative environment are another common source.
- Add Pro-Luck: Pro-luck includes all the actions, behaviors, and people that expand your luck surface area. Getting out and meeting new people, sharing your thoughts and ideas publicly, and sending more cold emails and DMs are all common sources of pro-luck. People who encourage you to think bigger and improve your environment are another common source.
As you continue on your journey, always remember my Luck Razor:
When choosing between two paths, always choose the path that has a larger luck surface area. Ask yourself: Which of the two paths is more likely to lead to me getting lucky? Act accordingly.